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Arizona Real Estate News

 

June 12, 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update JUNE 2020 ** we are 68% recovered from the COVID February Crash-

Here are the numbers:

-Active listings are down 30%

-Sold listings are down 37%

-Prices have increased by +6% median sales price & + 8% median sales price per sq ft. 

Over all our market in Arizona remains very strong. We are seeing the same frenzied buying as 23% of homes listed sold above asking price. More listings are currently under contract that are available for sale. Over the last few weeks the number of properties under contract has jumped by 20%.Our recovery since the COVID crash is around 68% of normal sales activity. The most active price points are the range of 200/k-400/k these include areas in the southeast valley, west valley north & south phoenix. Even the luxury market is rebounding as counteract over 500/k are up 159% for the year.Overall inventory levels are at a low point for buyers sitting at March levels of around 11/k properties. Low interest rates continue to be a driver for buyers. As stated 23% of all closed homes sold above ask price. up from 17% in Jan and 19% in Feb.  

That percentage increases to 38% for closings between $200K-$250K and 27% between $250K-$300K.  It’s not uncommon for sellers to experience multiple offers, escalation clauses and appraisal waivers in today’s environment. In fact, there have been reports of 70 competing offers or more on homes under $300K.  

Sellers who have been on the fence about listing their home lately should seriously consider it now and take advantage while the market is hot.  This spurt in buyer activity may peak very soon and then fall into the typical seasonal decline the Greater Phoenix market experiences every year from July to December.  Pent up demand from the pandemic is now being released, but there’s no guarantee that it will continue at this level for long.  If you planned to sell your home this year, now is the time to list it.

Arizona Market:
Cromford Market Index (CMI): The CMI is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, above 100 is a seller’s market and below 100 is a buyer’s market. Prices do not drop until the CMI hits 90). On March 20, the CMI peaked at 241, and as of today it was a 170.2 , up from the bottom of 145.2 we hit on May 15 and up 10+ points in the past seven days.

Supply: Our local inventory started dropping on May 12 and has continued to decrease every day since. We finished May 2020 nearly 28% below where we were at the end of May 2019 and that is nearly 48% below normal inventory levels. To keep prices under control, we need more listings, desperately. Dr. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR said, “More listings and increased home construction will be needed to tame price growth.”

Demand: Showing Time shares its physical showing request data. The requests peaked on February 22 and then immediately dropped by 63% through mid-April. As of last week, we are only 2.7% below February’s peak and only 4.8% below where we were last year. Our demand is running about 15% below normal and increased 3% in the past week.

New Listings, New Pendings, and Closings: When new pendings outpace new listings, we have a market frenzy. This week over week comparison for the southeast valley since March 15 shows an early drop in new listing counts which is concerning given the growing demand. Only time will tell if it is pent up demand or actual demand. Based on February’s demand it is likely to be actual. If this is the case, prices will rise rapidly. Closings always increase at the end of the month. May’s end of the month was not only bigger than April’s, but the closing increases started earlier. Good signs for what is to come!  

Other Arizona News:

  • High paying tech jobs continue coming to AZ.
  • Despite the headlines, Boeing is hiring and growing.
  • Mitsubishi’s location in the Falcon Field district in Mesa is growing and they are bringing in more jobs.
  • Industrial building continues in NE Mesa and companies are occupying them quickly.
  • More businesses have committed to moving to AZ bringing several hundred jobs.
  • According to Elliot Pollack & Company as of the week of May 16 in Maricopa County retail and recreational trips are down 27.3% year over year.
  • April hotel occupancy levels were 24.8%, down from 73.8% year over year and from 47.9% in March.
  • Hotel demand in April was down 69.4% year over year and supply dropped 8.9% year over year. Several closed their doors completely.

Unemployment/Economy/Spending:

Amazon hired 175,000 new employees and announced that they will be keeping 150,000 of those new employees. Of the nearly 42 million who have filed for unemployment around 22 million are collecting benefits. A study from the University of Chicago found that 68% of unemployed workers who are receiving benefits that exceed the lost earnings. Further, 20% of the unemployed workers are receiving benefits that exceed two times the lost earnings. Becker Friedman from the Institute of Economics at the University of Chicago said, “The CAREs Act actually provides income expansion rather than replacement for most unemployed workers.”

 

 

What remains to be seen is the long-term impact of unemployment, the supply chain interruptions, and the 25-30% of the non-essential businesses that closed and will not reopen. Last Wednesday, AMC Theatres, the world’s biggest movie theater chain, stated they have “substantial doubt” they will be able to stay in business due to the extended closures.

National savings rates are up; April was 33% versus 12.7% in March and 8.4% a year ago. Remember one person’s spending is another person’s income. Saving is good yet so is spending. Spending on travel is slowly increasing. According to the TSA as of May 23 travel is down 89.1% year over year, an improvement from 91.3% the week before. Traffic through Sky Harbor is down 93% year over year in April.  

Emerging Trends:

  • We are seeing increases in second home purchases which is unusual in a financially stressful time.
  • Today’s consumers are researching commute time, wifi strength, cell strength, access to Amazon Prime Now, etc. These will likely become searchable data points in the future.
  • Moody’s Analytics expects that by the end of the year office vacancy rates could reach an all-time high of 19.4%.
  • 75% of Americans that are working from home said they would like to continue doing so and of those 2/3 said they would like to move.
  • 40% of homes do not have an extra room for a home office; 31% of people working from home are working in their living room or family room, 10% in the kitchen, and 3% in the attic.
I hope you stay safe and continue to be well. 
Thank you very much for reading this update and please let me know if I can help in any way with your real estate needs.
Posted in Market
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Dec. 28, 2019

Market update December 2019

Greetings all, 


I hope this email finds you all well and enjoying all the best the holiday season has to offer! Our family was blessed with our 3rd Holiday season with this little face! 
Had to share this picture of my daughter Darrelle, on Christmas morning! She was so excited to open her presents "Santa" had brought for her! 
Our Arizona real estate market has nothing but good news to report and even more blue sky's  ahead.
Of course there is no way to see into the future but most indicators and market predictions are for a healthy housing market next year. 
Some key points this month. 
  • Sales are up 7% from last year. 
  • Total inventory is down 19% from last year
  • Months supply sits at 2.49 months - if no new homes came on the market we would have nothing to sell by the middle of March!
  • Average sales price is up 8.7% from last year. (again another high water mark and all time high for Maricopa county at $354,900)   
  • Average days on market fell as well to 58 from 64 last month

I wish you all the very best and a happy, healthy new year in 2020! 
 
 
you can read the whole report here- 
Posted in Market
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Dec. 13, 2019

Budget-Friendly Cleaning Tips for Dog Owners

 

 

 

 

Opening your home and heart to a dog is beneficial to you—the human—as well as the four-legged friend you took home from the shelter or breeder. Studies show that living with a dog can keep you physically fit, happier, and healthier—especially as you age. Sharing your home with a dog can also help to reduce stress, ease feelings of depression, lower blood pressure, and improve cardiovascular health overall.

 

While sharing your home with a pooch has its benefits, there are several drawbacks to living with any furry companion animal. From the lingering smell of pet odors to the hair and dander you’ll find spread across your furniture, sharing a home with a dog means you’ll put a considerable amount of time into cleaning your floors, couches, rugs, and bedding.

While dog ownership may seem daunting, cleaning up after a pooch doesn’t need to be costly or time-consuming. For some budget-friendly tips that will help you to keep your home clean and odor-free, read on!

Managing Dog Fur and Dander

Sharing a home with a dog means you’ll more than likely find fur and dander scattered across your furniture, floors, rugs, clothes, and bedding—especially if you’re not regularly brushing your canine companion. For instance, The Spruce discusses the importance of grooming and brushing your dog for a clean home and a healthy pup! You can’t stop your dog from shedding, but routine grooming will reduce the amount of hair you’ll find lying around your home.

 

To keep your home clean and hair-free in between groomings, the following tools can be used to remove pet hair from furniture, upholstery, rugs, floors and clothing:

 

●     Tape or lint rollers

●     A handheld vacuum

●     A Fur-Zoff Pet Hair Remover

●     A cloth wrapped in duct tape

●     Dryer sheets

●     Rubber gloves (for upholstered furniture)

Eliminating Odors and Stains

When you live with a canine companion, there will come a time when your pup has an accident on your carpet, area rug, or even inside your vehicle. In these situations, you’ll need to clean the soiled area as quickly as possible to prevent a permanent odor from setting in. To do so, use a sponge or several paper towels to soak up as much of the urine as possible. Then, use a pet-friendly odor neutralizer to spot-treat the soiled area before covering the area with plastic wrap and allowing the odor neutralizer to work its magic.

 

If a stain forms or you smell an odor even after you absorb the urine and neutralize the area, a deep clean may be in order. In most cases, an enzymatic-based cleaning solution will be your best strategy for removing urine stains from your home.

 

After letting the enzyme digester sit for about four hours, you may need to apply the cleaning solution a few more times—especially if you’re working on an older pet stain. If the stain remains, a mixture of baking soda and vinegar may do the trick.

Removing Saliva Stains and Slobber

While you may love seeing your dog in the window whenever you pull into your driveway after a long day at work, you may not be thrilled about the nose art or slobber he leaves behind for you to clean. According to Vivamune, you can easily remove these slimy saliva stains from your windows with an equal mixture of water and white vinegar. Just pour this mixture into a spray bottle and use a rag or paper towel to clean your windows as you normally would.

 

For stubborn saliva stains, Mr. Clean Magic Erasers can be used to wash your windows before polishing them off with white vinegar and water. Just dip the Magic Eraser into hot water, wring it out, and scrub the window clean. You can even use a Magic Eraser to remove drool from walls coated in flat or eggshell paint!

 

Sure, cleaning dog messes isn’t always enjoyable—especially when you’re juggling work, kids, and everyday life. However, these budget-friendly tips can help you to keep your home clean and your pup happy—which is the perfect balance for any dog owner.

- Article by Medina James medina@dogetiquette.info

Posted in Communities
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Nov. 27, 2019

October Market Update | Residential Market News Phoenix Arizona Metro Areas

Well we start off with nothing but good news from the AZ market and finish with the same. We have hit the high-water mark for total sales volume with a month to go.

(Surpassing 2005)
"The one metric that defines the overall success of our industry is total dollar sales volume. It’s quite remarkable when we reconcile the market expectations from last October with the reality of today. Just one year
ago interest rates were rising, the stock market was on the verge of a 20% drop, housing was in the doldrums and
national news reports were loud and negative. With all the negative momentum, who would have believed that 2019
would account for the highest gross dollar sales volume in ARMLS history? I’m here today to say when the final
numbers are counted, 2019 will beat out 2005 and rank number 1."



Some highlights:
Average prices are up 6.4% compared to this time last year and the median sales price is also up 8.8% over the same period.
Total inventory is down and sits at 18443 units, about -15.2% from last year.
Average days on market stayed about the same at 59 vs 61.
Overall all signs are for a robust and strong finish to the year.
Some interesting Ideas from this months reports-
"San Francisco can be thought of as a city of haves and
have nots using the example of two schoolteachers, one who purchased a median price home in 2000 for $400,000
and the other who chose to rent. The homeowner is now a millionaire and the renter is paying $3,700 per month
in rent and has nothing. All because one chose to buy and the other chose to rent. This level of inequity is not
conducive to a community, which explains the flood of recent articles about people fleeing not only San Francisco,
but California in general. The San Francisco Bay area is second only to New York when it comes to people leaving.
Why is this important to us? Arizona, specifically Phoenix metro, is one of the California migrants’ top 5 destinations
of choice.
On the forefront of my mind recently is the extreme deficit in affordable housing. One example that our
industry needs to address is the severe cost burden put on renters as they face annual rent increases ranging
from 2-5%. There are housing alternatives out there and we as an industry need to do a better job educating
people about the very real fact that mortgage credit is available and very reasonable. With only a 3.5% down
payment, and as low as a 580 FICO score with a debt-to-income ration as high as 50% you can buy a home
using a FHA/VA mortgage. In many cases, renters aren’t aware of how much mortgage credit is open to help
them pursue the American Dream, and instead are absorbing higher annual housing costs, which can be a
difficult cycle to break out of for many young consumers."
 
I hope you all have a wonder Thanksgiving, filled with family, friends and wonderful times!
Thank you for everything!

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Nov. 26, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving! #happythanksgiving #thankyou #realestate #community #integrity #ericwilliamsonrealtor

#happythanksgiving #thankyou #realestate #community #integrity #ericwilliamsonrealtor

 

Posted in Communities
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Nov. 1, 2019

September Market Update | Residential Market News Phoenix Arizona Metro Areas

Our Real estate market continues to improve in every metric. 
Sales are up 13.8% for the year. Average and and median prices are up 5.1% and 7.7% respectively.
The median of $280,000 for this month is the high-water mark for home sales not only this year, but the highest ever!
A good time to own real estate! 
 
Thank you all for being a part of my real estate family and I look forward to our next call! 
    
septamber data.PNG
 
    Have a safe and fun evening!    
 
  (see full reports here) https://armls.com/docs/2019-September-STAT.pdf  
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Oct. 1, 2019

August Market Update | Residential Market News Phoenix Arizona Metro Areas

Greetings, 
This month I wanted to lead with something different. (We will get to the real estate news in a moment ;)) everyday life can be a struggle between the good and bad the yin-and-yang we all want to be better and strive to remove our character flaws. This is a daily event and it start with recognizing what you want to excel at for me I think the list here is most relevant: 

1- #fatherhood - becoming the best partner possible.
2- #husband - this should perhaps be number 1 but placing our spouse 1st we are in essence making this the "umbrella" #1
3- #health - take time to care for your self, work on what you feel is important (body, mind, soul, spirit) 
4- #career - work with a unshakable determination and dedication towards your goals. Never give up and serve your client better and at a higher level than you best peers and in that act alone you will differentiate your product and service.
5- #friendship - for me this is about spending time and energy to foster those relationships that are important. Trying to take care of your friends can never be a waste of time. Caring for others is a selfless act that will pay your soul handsomely in peace and solace. We all go to sleep alone, no matter who is out beds. 

#gratitude give your self 10 minutes to watch this video I came across recently. 
It is very impact and delivers a strong message! My gratitude is for each one of you and the opportunity to with with you on your real estate en-devours. Your trust and confidence that you place in me is
Arizona Real Estate picture 9.30.2019
Inventory is low prices are up and we remain in a strong sellers market. Low interest rates are keeping buyers happy and purchasing homes at a record pace. Demand almost always subsides every year between July and January. It’s only when a counter trend occurs that we have a story. When judging your bushels of apples, you want to view the year-over-year trend. Sales in August were 8.6% higher than a year ago, which understates the real year-over-year improvement. There was one more business day last year, which brings our real improvement closer to 13%. This August accounted for the third highest sales volume in ARMLS reporting history, surpassed only by 2004 and 2005, with only 266 fewer sales than ‘04. With 690 more sales this year than last, 2019 sales year-to-date have now surpassed 2018. Looking ahead to how the year might end, I’m willing to go out on a limb and say the prognosticators were wrong back in January (I may or may not have been one of them). 2019 sales will surpass 2018 in both sales volume and price.   
Eric Williamson - August 2019 - Market Snapshot.jpg
demandsales.PNG
In a recent article I saw this headline!
"Phoenix Replaces Las Vegas As Top City in Annual Gains!" - 
prices are up up up! I have to ask how long can this uptrend last we have been in appreciating market for 9 years... All markets rise and fall and perhaps we are primed for a pullback? Just going out on a limb with that one. 
That leads me to the recent flier I put together below and some commentary about the "ibuyers"  offerpad, zillow, knock & open door along with the traditional wholesalers out in the market
2.jpg
Another national iBuyer has entered the Phoenix marketplace. This time it’s Atlanta-based Knock. Knock’s first closing occurred mid-April and to date they’ve purchased approximately 25 properties in Maricopa County. When it comes to iBuyers, Phoenix is ground zero. The question arises, why Phoenix? ATTOM Data believes housing affordability (and availability) likely plays a role in this, as does overall consistency of existing housing stock, stating: “iBuyers rely heavily on data and algorithms when evaluating potential properties. Areas with inconsistent and highly unique housing makes this approach less reliable.” Personally, I believe fate is the primary reason. The CEO of Opendoor was born in Glendale and the entrepreneurs behind Offerpad are from the East Valley. It may be as simple as starting in the market you know best. And while I think fate placed the roots of Opendoor and Offerpad in Phoenix, I think Zillow selected the Valley simply to go toe-to-toe with the competition. For the more conspiratorial among us, it could also be some sort of “hey we’ll team up later strategy.” (When you view the graphic below, you’ll see Zillow is basically everywhere Opendoor is.) ARMLS STAT AUGUST 2019 ARMLS STAT AUGUST 2019 Another reason why Phoenix is so popular may lie in the subtle aftermath of the housing collapse. Large institutional investors like Blackstone, Colony and American Homes for Rent found they could look at properties through computer models and make split-second decisions to purchase, and they purchased thousands of homes this way. As we all know too well, Phoenix was the epicenter of the housing crisis. If you look at the home bases of the iBuyers and the cities where they’re active, you’ll see they closely resemble the cities where the institutional buyers were most active during the housing crash. The successes by institutional investors in 2012 might have offered proof of concept, particularly to venture capitalists. The graphic below shows the markets where the iBuyers are currently active.  
ibuyermarkets.PNG
History will tell us who succeeds and who fails, but it should be noted that none of the iBuyers are turning a profit. And Zillow, the behemoth of them all, was just called, “One of the most flawed business models I’ve seen in a very very long time,” by Steve Eisman of Neuberger Berman in a recent interview with CNBC’s “Power Lunch” team. Eisman, who was played by Steve Carell in the movie “The Big Short”, made the comment while explaining why he is shorting Zillow stock. The biggest problem he has with Zillow is what he calls their internet buying business. He does not think the company understands the real risks of the business, which he believes are massive. As an example, Eisman referenced the first words out of the mouth of Zillow’s CEO when the CEO mentioned TAM during their recent conference call. TAM stands for Total Addressable Market, with the Zillow CEO defining TAM as the U.S. housing market in its entirety. Explaining something I’ve attempted to put into words for years, Eisman addressed Zillow’s definition of TAM: “It’s a myth application of the word TAM to apply it to the real estate market because there really is no TAM in the way people think about in terms of the internet. There are thousands of mini markets all over the United States, they’re all local, they’re all extremely different, they all have incredibly different risks.” The iBuyers are not the only “new” business model in our marketplace. It seems a new disruptive venture capital backed business model comes into our market each month- enter Kribbz. And they aren’t just targeting residential sales commissions; they’re also targeting Title, Mortgage, Appraisers and the MLS. Some offer higher prices and greater convenience while others offer monetary savings. Disrupters view our industry as “20th century” with the same talking points always popping up: travel agents, stock traders, and cab drivers. As Purplebricks found out, disrupting the “thousands of unique mini markets” is not as simple as they thought. After entering our market in September of 2017, they exited the U.S. after their stock plummet 75% from when they arrived. How are agents fairing in the field of iBuyers this year? I’d say quite well, with the gross dollar sales volume the highest ARMLS has ever reported through the first 8 months of 2019.   
Last month the STAT mathematical model projected a median sales price for August of $280,000. The August reported median was $280,000. Looking ahead to September, the ARMLS Pending Price Index anticipates the median sales price will decrease slightly, projecting a median sales price of $279,250. It’s a common seasonal occurrence for the median sales price to wobble through the last quarter of the year. We begin September with 6,351 pending contracts; 3,580 UCB listings and 562 CCBS giving us a total of 10,493 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 9,193 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of September, the “pending” contracts were 14.1% higher than last year. There were 19 business days in September of 2018 and 20 this year. ARMLS reported 6,897 sales in September of 2018. We expect sales volume will be higher this year, our guess is somewhere around 8000.  
Thank you all for looking through my market update I hope it is helpful. 
As always please let me know if I can help you in any way. Erics' cell 602.435.6708
See you next month. 
**** portions shared from ARMLS STAT
Posted in Market
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Aug. 18, 2019

Market update July 2019

 

I hope this email finds you all doing well and having a wonderful Friday early evening! 
Another months of sales data is ready for you. 
We continue to stay in a "sellers market"  with increasing prices, shrinking supply & inventory, increasing sales volume & appreciation rates.
Many people ask if we are in another bubble. I do not think so, we are not doomed to repeat the bubble. The reality is that we’re not afraid to repeat 2004, it’s the rapid 45% appreciation rate of 2005 that sparks fear and hesitance. Many laws and industry changes have been put into place since that time to avoid repeating history; changes that affected nearly every industry involved in residential real estate. That’s what makes this time interesting to watch going forward. We have been here before, but this time the industry is wiser.Appreciation rates in Greater Phoenix are forecasted to be positive for the rest of the year and into 2020. Enjoy the ride!
As always thank you for allowing me the privilege  of being your realtor and please let me know how I can help!
Posted in Buying
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Aug. 18, 2019

Steps to interview an agent

Steps to Take Before You Hire a Real Estate Agent

 

Buying and selling a home is a complicated process, and it’s natural to want an experienced real estate agent to guide you through it. However, there are some things that buyers and sellers should take care of before they reach out to a real estate professional. Read on to have these tasks broken down into simple steps that anyone can follow.

Buying

When buyers don’t have a solid understanding of their finances, it causes frustration for everyone. Before shopping for homes, buyers should talk to lenders and get pre-approved for a loan, this will let a buyer know the amount they can borrow. Buyers should provide information about their income, assets, debts, and credit score to receive pre-approval. If you don’t know your credit score, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explains how to get yours.

 

If the mortgage that a buyer is pre-approved for is less than they’d hoped, they may decide it’s not the right time to buy. Paying down debts, building up savings, and improving one’s credit score can increase the pre-approval amount, but doing so takes time.

 

Sometimes, buyers qualify for a larger mortgage than they’re comfortable with. Buyers aren’t obligated to spend the maximum that they’re qualified for, and in some cases, doing so can harm the buyer’s overall financial health. Buyers should assess their budget and financial goals to come up with the amount they’re willing to spend on a home each month. In addition to the mortgage payment, buyers should factor in homeownership expenses including PMI, property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA fees, utilities, and maintenance.

Selling

Sellers have their own to-do list to wrangle with. Before buying their next home enters their minds, sellers must get their current home ready to sell.

 

Sellers should tend to loose doorknobs, dripping faucets, stained carpets, scuffed walls, and other minor repairs that are easy and inexpensive to complete. For the most part, sellers should avoid spending money on major home improvement projects unless a realtor advises that they’re necessary to attract buyers. The exception is structural and mechanical issues that would come up during a buyer’s inspection, because problems that arise during an inspection can stall or stop a sale. To learn if there are serious issues to fix (or that warrant a reduced listing price), sellers should schedule a pre-listing home inspection. Home inspections cost an average of $278 - $390 nationally, and they can make the difference between a smooth transaction and protracted negotiations.

 

Once the home is in good repair, sellers should organize and stage. As HGTV explains, the point of staging isn’t to decorate to the seller’s tastes; rather, it’s to make the home a blank slate that interested buyers can imagine themselves living in. In addition to decluttering and removing personalized decorations, sellers should reorganize furniture so that rooms appear spacious and are easy for buyers to move through.

 

A real estate agent is there to guide clients through the most confusing aspects of buying and selling a home, like setting the right asking price and closing on a new home. But before getting to that point, home buyers and sellers have their own legwork to do. By handling these simple tasks before calling a real estate agent, clients avoid wasting their hard-earned time and money when buying and selling a home. 

 

credit :

Medina James <medina@dogetiquette.info>

Posted in Buying
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July 10, 2019

June 2019 real estate market update

 

read the full report here- 

https://armls.com/statistics

Posted in Market
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