Arizona Real Estate News

 

April 2, 2021

March 2021 Residential Real Estate Market Update

Wow is March over already? I just want to take a moment and say HOLLY SMOKES!!!!
I have never seen a hotter housing market than what we are in right now. Here are the numbers: 
An increase is forecasted in March for both average and median sales prices.  
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  New inventory is up +0.1% monthover-month while the year-overyear comparison decreased by -11.7%.   
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  . Average new list prices are up +14.1% year-overyear. The yearover-year median is up +14.3%.   The average sales price is up +22.3% year-over-year while the yearover-year median sales price is also up +18.6%.
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Sales are up +8.2% month-over-month. The year-over-year comparison is up +5.2%.  
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February reported the highest median price, average price and price per square foot on record, which is up year-over-year 18.6%, 22.3% and 21.0% respectively. ARMLS reported a staggering $6,612,744,621 in gross dollar volume, currently 32% ahead of the record pace of last year. When March numbers are reported these records will be broken again, and by the time June sales figures report, the current chatter will reach a roar. Our current market conditions are a direct result of extremely low supply, steady demand and historically low interest rates.   
Please let me know if you, a friend,  or a family member has any questions about buying or selling. 
I appreciate the opportunity to work with you and hope you all have a wonderful day! 
**** cited from armls STAT- https://armls.com/statistics
Posted in Market
Feb. 24, 2021

February 2021 Residential Real Estate Market Update--- Prices are Gapping up... lack of inventory, pricing imbalances. great rates and increasing pricing on the way! Current listings are 84% below wha

What an unbelievable market we are in. 🛫🏠
We are in the midst of a "pricing gap up" . There is a huge imbalance between buyers and sellers adding in once in a lifetime rates = a fire 🔥 market! 
My prediction in june we will see a 8-12% increase in home values in Maricopa county.- dont hold me to it no one knows for sure what markets will do but Eric's crystal ball says we will do 8-12% appreciation by summer -
"ARMLS reported the highest sales volume of any January in our history. The 7,076 home sales this January eclipsed the prior January record for ARMLS sales by 6.69%. There were 6,632 sales reported by ARMLS in January 2005. Combine sales volume from last month with the highest average sales price ever ($439,620) and you arrive at an astounding gross dollar volume of $3.11 billion dollars, an annual increase of 35%. We described our market as a full-blown sellers’ market with the added caveat, “Anyone waiting for prices to fall, well, they’ll be waiting.”  January 2021. The current interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 2.73% compared to 3.47% one year ago. Year-over-year, active listings are down 58%, sales volume is up 11.8% and the median sales price is up 17.28%. And now we are entering our traditional buying season. We are now facing a “full-blown sellers’ market” on steroids.
Key drivers-  👀🌵🏡
Months supply of inventory for December was 1.01 with January at 1.34.
Total inventory has a month-over month decrease of -3.3% while year over-year reflects a decrease of -41.0%.  
The average sales price is up +20.6% year-over-year while the year over-year median sales price is also up +17.3%.  
Days on market were down -18.   
Severe shortage of homes listed for sale. Consider, over the past 24 months. In February 2019 ARMLS was reporting only 18,131 total active listings, which was 37% below what we would define as a typical market. At the time of this report, ARMLS is reporting only 4,488 active listings without a contract. To place this number in a historical perspective, current listings are 84% below what would be considered a typical market. 
Detached single-family listings have declined over 78%.  
 
If you have ever thought about selling now may be the time to explore your options. Like any market there are ways to maximize your properties selling potential. Call me and ask me about why you should hire me to sell your home.
I am going to quote a legend here- 
Warren Buffett once said that it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” 
 
By the numbers- 
Sales, year over-year comparison is up +11.8%.  
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Inventory year-over year comparison decreased by -15.5%.- new & year over-year reflects a decrease of -41.0%.
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Months supply of homes- 1.34 
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The average sales price is up +20.6% year-over-year while the year over-year median sales price is also up +17.3%.  
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Current listings are 84% below what would be considered a typical market.   
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As al;ways thank you for being part of my real estate family and I wish all of you the very best. 
Please let me know if I can help you or a family member or friend obtain their real estate goals. 

Real Estate | Community | Integrity

 

Our goal is simple- Exceed your expectation every time, no exceptions. 

 
 
read the full report here- 

 

Posted in Market
Jan. 22, 2021

January 2021 #RealEstateMarketUpdate | #ArizonaRealtor | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #OpenDoor | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

This month's numbers show a continuation of the trend we have seen over the last year and it is accelerating.
Inventories are down. 
Sales volume (up 18% year over year )  & prices are up (11.7%) year over year . 
50% of the homes sold in January went pending within 42 days of the listing date. Our current market can best be described as a full-blown seller’s market. 
Based on public record data in Maricopa County, the median mortgage for a home purchased with a mortgage in January 2019 was $239,700. In January 2020, the median mortgage rose to $264,567. As a % median mortgage rose 10.4% year-over-year, which is in line with the median price increase of 10.6%. Interestingly, a homebuyer in 2019 would have paid $10,474 in yearly interest whereas the 2020 buyer would have only paid $9,180, a 14% declineRates hover near a 5 decade low.   
The forecast for this year remains strong. I think we could see prices break $300,000 for a median sales price by mid summer. ****

Inventory:

  • We are 52% below where we were at this time in 2020.
  • The first week of January is always the lowest supply week.
  • January 2021 was the lowest first week in January in at least 20 years. Historically low. Shockingly low.
  • Seasonally adjusted, we should have 21,000-25,000 the second week of January. Not 5,000!
  • About 10% of all listings in MLS are outside of greater Phoenix. We are way, way, way low.
  • We had 10% more listings in Q4 2020 than in Q4 2019.
  • We had 12.5% more listings in December 2020 than in December 2019 but have 31% greater demand.
  • In 2020, about 100,000 homes were listed, 38 than in 2019.
  • New listings are 36% below January 2020. There were only 2,088 new listings in the first 11 days of the year.
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Sales prices are up and should continue to $300,000 for a median sales price (possibly by summer)
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Why do we have a housing shortage?:

This is a housing shortage for real. This is not like 2005-2008. We are waiting for the census for the newest numbers, not yet for the county but soon. Expects all numbers by May 2021.

In 2019 we were already in trouble. We under built the past 10 years. We had a glut of housing in 2008 and it has all been absorbed. Since then we have been behind. Overbuilt for 10 years and then under-built for 10 years. All housing types; rental, condos, townhouses, single-family.

From 2010 through 2019 our population increased by 18% while housing units increased by 9%.

AZ ranked #3 for population growth from June 2019 to June 2020. Behind Texas and Florida. CA lost people for the first time in over 100 years.

23% of inbound migration to Arizona is from California.

We have diversity of labor force and job growth. More jobs are coming because we have lots of highly skilled workers. It is pushing out the people who cannot afford the housing prices. Workforce housing is really being impacted.

 

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Cromford index ** Available on the main page of the Cromford Report: http://cromfordreport.com/
  • 100 is balanced and prices rise at the rate of inflation, below 100 is a buyer’s market, above 100 is a seller’s market, prices drop below 90, prices rise at 110.
  • On 2/5/2020 we were at 215.1
  • On 3/20/2020 we were at 241
  • On 5/15/2020 we were at 145.2
  • Yesterday we were at 461.4.
  • Prior to this run, the previous peak was 312.9 in the spring of 2005.
  • CMI is the predictor, it moves first and then appreciation follows.

We are 30% above normal for demand. Supply is about 72% below normal. Our supply was stable for most of the year, just at a very low rate. In December inventory started dropping. Demand also started dropping in December. Supply dropped faster than demand and it is still in favor of sellers. Demand is down 4% but supply is down 5.6%

On 1/1/21 we were at 432 and now we are in the 461.4, super-fast increase. We cannot even discuss prices going flat, let alone down until CMI starts dropping. This indicator needs to drop in order to even lead to a price decrease. It will still take us a year to get to a balanced, aka normal, market for prices to go flat. At this rate, if demand dropped now, prices would not decrease until at least 2022.

 

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  • Contract ratio is 171 right now.
  • For every 100 listings active there are 171 in escrow
  • January is always the lowest for contract ratio and December is always the second-lowest, until 2020 and now December and January are the top months for this year.
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Please let me know if you, a friend,  or a family member has any questions about buying or selling. 
I appreciate the opportunity to work with you and hope you all have a wonderful day! 
**** cited from armls STAT- https://armls.com/statistics
Posted in Market
Dec. 24, 2020

#MarketUpdate| #ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #AZRealestate | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #RealEstate | #OpenDoor | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

Greetings & Happy Holidays!
I hope this email finds you doing well and having a good Holiday Eve! 
Some exciting news and updates, I switched brokers to OpenDoor Brokerage, please watch my video below to explain the why and what for my change. 
The quick notes for you are as follows:
- I am part of the "list with OpenDoor team" 
- I offer you the same exact services as before with enhanced support in terms of a dedicated personal transaction coordinator and brokerage team support along with some very exciting value ads for you. 
- I changed to OpenDoor because they are piloting a program where they offer the sellers that choose to not sell direct to OpenDoor a traditional listing model with Realtor representation through the MLS and a more traditional sales approach  to maximize their net from the sale vs. the convenience and certainty of selling to OpenDoor direct, for me this was a great opportunity to scale up my volume and create more wins for you all! The lead flow is tremendous and I am expecting to sell a record number of homes in 2021 and still deliver the best in class experience for my clients by maximizing the sale price, anticipating any turbulence before it happens and delivering a first class worry free experience. 
- I am the same agent and offer all the same services to you my past clients, your family and friends! Please think of me if you are considering anything real estate , have questions or have a family or friend looking to buy or sell! Thank you! 
The residential Real estate market is still on fire here in the Valley! 
- The median home sale price increased 15% year over year- the highest on record!
- The average sale- to- list price, which measures how close homes are selling to asking price, rose to 99.5%, another all time high
- Traditionally a "slower" time of year this homebuyers are still out there buying homes at a record pace. 
By the numbers- 
 
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Thank you. 
Eric Williamson
Realtor
Open Door Brokerage
(c) 602.435.6708 

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Posted in Market
Nov. 25, 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update October 2020, highest sales volume for any October in ARMLS history *** Happy Thanksgiving! ***

Greetings,

I wanted to start this months market update by wishing you all the very best Holiday Season.
Our Real Estate market here continues to outperform all the traditional models and behave more like the spring season even though we are in the fall, our traditional "slow" season. 
ARMLS reported 9,690 home sales in October, the highest sales volume for any October in ARMLS history, smashing the October 2004 total of 8,173 by 18.6%. Comparing October 2020 to October 2019 we saw a 23.5% year-over-year gain. And now, even after our dismal spring numbers, the total number of sales to date in 2020 has now surpassed 2019. Let me remind you, 2019 was a very good year.   

The average purchase price for a home sold in October hit a new record high of $425,263. October gross dollar volume of $4,120,798,470 was the highest gross dollar volume in ARMLS history.
The average priced home in October was $425,300, a remarkable 23.2% increase year over-year. The median sales price was $332,500, an increase of 16.7% year-over-year. 

Thank you very much and Happy Holidays to all of you!

Posted in Market
Oct. 18, 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update September 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update September 2020 ***we were 436 homes away from an all-time record*** 2nd best quarter in ARMLS history
-New listings are up 18%, while active listings are down -42%
-Sold listings are up 23% (year over year) while total months of inventory sit near record lows of 1.4 months.
-The 3rd quarter of 2020 saw a near record setting total number of sales, just shy (435 homes short) of the all time record set in 3rd quarter of 2005.
-13500 homes are set to close in the next 30 to 45 days up 36% from this time last year.
-Home values are up 18% in the last 12 months (and 12% since just June this year)
-Low rates, out of state buyers, a population boom and high demand with low inventory are setting up appreciation to keep up well into 2021.
Posted in Market
Oct. 16, 2020

Real Estate Investing & Appreciation since 2016 in Arizona

If you bought a home in 2016 in Arizona, you have on average, realized a 34% increase in your property value!
-from seasoned investors to first time homebuyers, please let me know if I can help you with your real estate goals in any way! We will get you where you want to be-
Posted in Market
Oct. 15, 2020

Eric Williamson Realtor | Happy Halloween | Top Realtor

#HappyHalloween |#ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #Fairhousing | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #EricWilliamsonRealtor
Posted in Market
Aug. 31, 2020

#realestatemarket

#AugustMarketUpdate| #ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #AZRealestate | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #RealEstate | #RealtyONE | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

Every single thermometer we use to measure our current market, even the ones using mercury, say the exact same thing, we’re on fire. Last month in STAT, pointed out that “although our market is on fire, a hot market does not necessarily mean we have a healthy market”. In STAT we report current market conditions. These metrics also offer insights as to what we might expect over the next six to 12 months (although a year gets a little trickier where we’re somewhat guessing). Beyond a year we’re only guessing. That said, I’m quite confident, barring another unforeseen event like COVID-19, that sales volume will show year-over-year gains in both August and September, and most likely October. I wouldn’t even be surprised that when 2020 ends, sales volume will exceed 2019. Through the first seven months, sales volume in 2020 is 4.7% lower than 2019, with 5 positive months and 2 dismal months. I also think the median price gains will moderate through the end of the year as our normal seasonal patterns finally kick in. As for the longer term, nobody knows how long our “fuego” market will last, but we do know the extreme measurements we’re seeing today will eventually change. No market cycle lasts forever. At The Information Market we have the privilege of working with the finest analysts in our marketplace. There are a bunch of bright individuals out there all trying to build better crystal balls. I can share with you the primary questions they’re asking. They center around housing affordability, changes in foreclosure activity now that mortgage forbearances are ending, how the unrest in other major cities might affect our housing demand and finally, when do we see the current market cycle ending and how mild/severe will it be. We don’t have the answers to any of these questions at this time, but I promise you, we will be closely monitoring the data and will share the answers with you when we find them. 14 ARMLS STAT JULY 2020 Pending Price Index Last month the STAT mathematical model projected a median sales price for July of $310,000. The July reported median was $315,000. Looking ahead to August, the median sales price is expected to increase. The ARMLS Pending Price index is projecting a median sales price of $320,000. Our mathematical model has underestimated the actual median sales price the last three months. I do not expect this to be the case in August. We begin August with 7,479 pending contracts, 4,315 UCB listings and 681 CCBS, giving us a total of 12,475 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 10,855 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of August, the “pending” contracts were 15% higher than last year. There were 22 business days in July of 2019 and 22 this year. ARMLS reported 8,726 sales in August of 2019""

ARMLS-STAT JULY 2020

 

Posted in Market
July 29, 2020

#realestatemarketupdate

Arizona Real Estate market update July 2020 +++ Half the year is in the books and we were 1 sale away from a record! ++++

Overall the theme remains the same and as noted in the subject line, "if just one more average priced home had sold in the first six months, 2020 would have reported the highest dollar sales volume in its history."     
Numbers, graphs and commentary below:

-Active listings are down again for the 5th month in a row. 
We now stand at about 7642 active properties for sale. 
-Continuing the same theme; inventory available for purchase sits at 1.5 months
This is right at the lowest levels I have ever seen in our market. 
The demand for housing is parabolic. 
This time last year we had about 30% more active listings than we do today.   
To put this in perspective if we had the same number of available homes we had last year we would be sitting around 2.87 months of inventory. (keep in mind a balanced market is around 6 months supply)   
-Sold listings bounced up from last month's decline to 9249 units, this is about the same level we had a year ago and what would be considered in a normal range. 
Interestingly, we actually closed more homes this month than compared with 1 year ago by +2.1%. 
-Prices continue to climb (this appreciation goes hand in hand with the rental market where the same property last year would now fetch about 250 dollars more per month
The average sales price is up +5.1% year-overyear while the year-overyear median sales price is also up +9.0% .
The average sales price sits at an all time high water mark! @ +$369/k
 
-Distressed sales, including foreclosures, hud homes & short sales pending month-over-month showed a decrease of -10.5% while the year over-year figure was down -34.1%. I think this shows two things. 1) low rates and home owner equity will help weather some of the economic pressure from covid and how it relates to housing. 2) the overall strength of the housing market here in the valley. Distressed sales are a good measure of the health of the housing market.  Distressed sales accounted for 0.6% of total sales, the same as the previous month. Short sales dropped -60.0% year-over-year. Lender-owned sales decreased -26.8% year over-year.
According to Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, “Pending sales and home-purchase loan applications are higher than in June of last year and reflect the buying activity of millennials.” It’s clear, record-low mortgage rates and millennials are driving home sales.
Sales volume for the first 6 months of 2020 show that we will pass 2019 sales vloumes. This is really remarkable given the way the year has gone. Sales volume is a key metric. It seems impossible, but if just one more average priced home had sold in the first six months, 2020 would have reported the highest dollar sales volume in its history. 
Truly remarkable. 
Typically, our home buying/selling season kicks off with the Super Bowl and then slows as our summer temperatures rise with pending contracts peaking in late April and home closings topping out in May and June. This year, pending contracts hit their current high-water mark on June 29, and there is still a good chance we might report an even higher number of pending contracts in the weeks to come. The chart below compares the number of properties under contract to the number of active listings in Maricopa County. 
This is an extremely stretched position for buyers vs sellers. 

One segment of our housing market that was unfazed by the “Corona Pause” was new construction. Newly built homes sold in the second quarter of 2020 exceeded the number sold in 2019 for the same period. An amazing result considering the dire March predictions. The spreadsheet below displays both sales volume as well as the median sales price. The median sales price for newly built homes has been rising at a much slower rate over the last several years than the resale market. The gap between a median priced resale home in Maricopa County and a median priced newly built home in Maricopa County is about $60,000. Put in terms of a monthly payment, with the current extremely low interest rates, the difference is about $170 per month. Anecdotally,  savvy “buy and hold” rental investor purchasing new builds for their portfolio telling me “the numbers” work.

We should point out that even though we project future home closing and sales prices, we are not really forecasting. We are merely counting the properties under contract and their reported contract price. We can also track historical patterns, which in turn define seasonal patterns. In 2020 our leading indicators have given accurate insights as to how closing data will appear in the next month or two. On the other hand, our seasonal patterns are in complete disarray. Historically, we would see sales volume and prices peak in May or July, with volume declining for the remainder of the year while prices remain relatively flat. This year it appears our “season” has been pushed back as the market recoups the losses from April and May. Like the first six months of 2020, the second half will not follow traditional norms.  
Pending Price Index Last month in STAT, the mathematical model projected a median sales price for June of $300,000. The June reported median was $305,000. Looking ahead to July, the median sales price will increase. The ARMLS Pending Price index is projecting a median sales price of $310,000. Our mathematical model has underestimated the actual median sales price the last two months. Don’t be surprised if the reported median sales price for July once again exceeds our projection. We begin July with 7,819 pending contracts; 4,857 UCB listings and 733 CCBS giving us a total of 13,409 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 10,972 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of July, the “pending” contracts are 22.2% higher than last year. There were 22 business days in July of 2019 and 22 this year. ARMLS reported 9,192 sales in July of 2019.   ****

 

#JuneMarketUpdate| #ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #AZRealestate | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #RealEstate | #RealtyONE | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

 

Thank you for reading and please stay safe. 
Best regards-
**** sources quoted from ARMLS ****
Posted in Market