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Oct. 18, 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update September 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update September 2020 ***we were 436 homes away from an all-time record*** 2nd best quarter in ARMLS history
-New listings are up 18%, while active listings are down -42%
-Sold listings are up 23% (year over year) while total months of inventory sit near record lows of 1.4 months.
-The 3rd quarter of 2020 saw a near record setting total number of sales, just shy (435 homes short) of the all time record set in 3rd quarter of 2005.
-13500 homes are set to close in the next 30 to 45 days up 36% from this time last year.
-Home values are up 18% in the last 12 months (and 12% since just June this year)
-Low rates, out of state buyers, a population boom and high demand with low inventory are setting up appreciation to keep up well into 2021.
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Oct. 16, 2020

Real Estate Investing & Appreciation since 2016 in Arizona

If you bought a home in 2016 in Arizona, you have on average, realized a 34% increase in your property value!
-from seasoned investors to first time homebuyers, please let me know if I can help you with your real estate goals in any way! We will get you where you want to be-
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Oct. 15, 2020

Eric Williamson Realtor | Happy Halloween | Top Realtor

#HappyHalloween |#ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #Fairhousing | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #EricWilliamsonRealtor
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Aug. 31, 2020

#realestatemarket

#AugustMarketUpdate| #ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #AZRealestate | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #RealEstate | #RealtyONE | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

Every single thermometer we use to measure our current market, even the ones using mercury, say the exact same thing, we’re on fire. Last month in STAT, pointed out that “although our market is on fire, a hot market does not necessarily mean we have a healthy market”. In STAT we report current market conditions. These metrics also offer insights as to what we might expect over the next six to 12 months (although a year gets a little trickier where we’re somewhat guessing). Beyond a year we’re only guessing. That said, I’m quite confident, barring another unforeseen event like COVID-19, that sales volume will show year-over-year gains in both August and September, and most likely October. I wouldn’t even be surprised that when 2020 ends, sales volume will exceed 2019. Through the first seven months, sales volume in 2020 is 4.7% lower than 2019, with 5 positive months and 2 dismal months. I also think the median price gains will moderate through the end of the year as our normal seasonal patterns finally kick in. As for the longer term, nobody knows how long our “fuego” market will last, but we do know the extreme measurements we’re seeing today will eventually change. No market cycle lasts forever. At The Information Market we have the privilege of working with the finest analysts in our marketplace. There are a bunch of bright individuals out there all trying to build better crystal balls. I can share with you the primary questions they’re asking. They center around housing affordability, changes in foreclosure activity now that mortgage forbearances are ending, how the unrest in other major cities might affect our housing demand and finally, when do we see the current market cycle ending and how mild/severe will it be. We don’t have the answers to any of these questions at this time, but I promise you, we will be closely monitoring the data and will share the answers with you when we find them. 14 ARMLS STAT JULY 2020 Pending Price Index Last month the STAT mathematical model projected a median sales price for July of $310,000. The July reported median was $315,000. Looking ahead to August, the median sales price is expected to increase. The ARMLS Pending Price index is projecting a median sales price of $320,000. Our mathematical model has underestimated the actual median sales price the last three months. I do not expect this to be the case in August. We begin August with 7,479 pending contracts, 4,315 UCB listings and 681 CCBS, giving us a total of 12,475 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 10,855 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of August, the “pending” contracts were 15% higher than last year. There were 22 business days in July of 2019 and 22 this year. ARMLS reported 8,726 sales in August of 2019""

ARMLS-STAT JULY 2020

 

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July 29, 2020

#realestatemarketupdate

Arizona Real Estate market update July 2020 +++ Half the year is in the books and we were 1 sale away from a record! ++++

Overall the theme remains the same and as noted in the subject line, "if just one more average priced home had sold in the first six months, 2020 would have reported the highest dollar sales volume in its history."     
Numbers, graphs and commentary below:

-Active listings are down again for the 5th month in a row. 
We now stand at about 7642 active properties for sale. 
-Continuing the same theme; inventory available for purchase sits at 1.5 months. 
This is right at the lowest levels I have ever seen in our market. 
The demand for housing is parabolic. 
This time last year we had about 30% more active listings than we do today.   
To put this in perspective if we had the same number of available homes we had last year we would be sitting around 2.87 months of inventory. (keep in mind a balanced market is around 6 months supply)   
-Sold listings bounced up from last month's decline to 9249 units, this is about the same level we had a year ago and what would be considered in a normal range. 
Interestingly, we actually closed more homes this month than compared with 1 year ago by +2.1%. 
-Prices continue to climb (this appreciation goes hand in hand with the rental market where the same property last year would now fetch about 250 dollars more per month) 
The average sales price is up +5.1% year-overyear while the year-overyear median sales price is also up +9.0% .
The average sales price sits at an all time high water mark! @ +$369/k
 
-Distressed sales, including foreclosures, hud homes & short sales pending month-over-month showed a decrease of -10.5% while the year over-year figure was down -34.1%. I think this shows two things. 1) low rates and home owner equity will help weather some of the economic pressure from covid and how it relates to housing. 2) the overall strength of the housing market here in the valley. Distressed sales are a good measure of the health of the housing market.  Distressed sales accounted for 0.6% of total sales, the same as the previous month. Short sales dropped -60.0% year-over-year. Lender-owned sales decreased -26.8% year over-year.
According to Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, “Pending sales and home-purchase loan applications are higher than in June of last year and reflect the buying activity of millennials.” It’s clear, record-low mortgage rates and millennials are driving home sales.
Sales volume for the first 6 months of 2020 show that we will pass 2019 sales vloumes. This is really remarkable given the way the year has gone. Sales volume is a key metric. It seems impossible, but if just one more average priced home had sold in the first six months, 2020 would have reported the highest dollar sales volume in its history. 
Truly remarkable. 
Typically, our home buying/selling season kicks off with the Super Bowl and then slows as our summer temperatures rise with pending contracts peaking in late April and home closings topping out in May and June. This year, pending contracts hit their current high-water mark on June 29, and there is still a good chance we might report an even higher number of pending contracts in the weeks to come. The chart below compares the number of properties under contract to the number of active listings in Maricopa County. 
This is an extremely stretched position for buyers vs sellers. 

One segment of our housing market that was unfazed by the “Corona Pause” was new construction. Newly built homes sold in the second quarter of 2020 exceeded the number sold in 2019 for the same period. An amazing result considering the dire March predictions. The spreadsheet below displays both sales volume as well as the median sales price. The median sales price for newly built homes has been rising at a much slower rate over the last several years than the resale market. The gap between a median priced resale home in Maricopa County and a median priced newly built home in Maricopa County is about $60,000. Put in terms of a monthly payment, with the current extremely low interest rates, the difference is about $170 per month. Anecdotally,  savvy “buy and hold” rental investor purchasing new builds for their portfolio telling me “the numbers” work.

We should point out that even though we project future home closing and sales prices, we are not really forecasting. We are merely counting the properties under contract and their reported contract price. We can also track historical patterns, which in turn define seasonal patterns. In 2020 our leading indicators have given accurate insights as to how closing data will appear in the next month or two. On the other hand, our seasonal patterns are in complete disarray. Historically, we would see sales volume and prices peak in May or July, with volume declining for the remainder of the year while prices remain relatively flat. This year it appears our “season” has been pushed back as the market recoups the losses from April and May. Like the first six months of 2020, the second half will not follow traditional norms.  
Pending Price Index Last month in STAT, the mathematical model projected a median sales price for June of $300,000. The June reported median was $305,000. Looking ahead to July, the median sales price will increase. The ARMLS Pending Price index is projecting a median sales price of $310,000. Our mathematical model has underestimated the actual median sales price the last two months. Don’t be surprised if the reported median sales price for July once again exceeds our projection. We begin July with 7,819 pending contracts; 4,857 UCB listings and 733 CCBS giving us a total of 13,409 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 10,972 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of July, the “pending” contracts are 22.2% higher than last year. There were 22 business days in July of 2019 and 22 this year. ARMLS reported 9,192 sales in July of 2019.   ****

 

#JuneMarketUpdate| #ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #AZRealestate | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #RealEstate | #RealtyONE | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

 

Thank you for reading and please stay safe. 
Best regards-
**** sources quoted from ARMLS ****
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July 4, 2020

#Happy4th

#Happy4th | #ArizonaRealEstate | #ArizonaRealtor | #AZRealestate | #SellForTopDollar | #ThankYou | #RealEstateAgent | #Community | #Integrity | #RealEstate | #RealtyONE | #EricWilliamsonRealtor

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June 12, 2020

Arizona Real Estate market update JUNE 2020 ** we are 68% recovered from the COVID February Crash-

Here are the numbers:

-Active listings are down 30%

-Sold listings are down 37%

-Prices have increased by +6% median sales price & + 8% median sales price per sq ft. 

Over all our market in Arizona remains very strong. We are seeing the same frenzied buying as 23% of homes listed sold above asking price. More listings are currently under contract that are available for sale. Over the last few weeks the number of properties under contract has jumped by 20%.Our recovery since the COVID crash is around 68% of normal sales activity. The most active price points are the range of 200/k-400/k these include areas in the southeast valley, west valley north & south phoenix. Even the luxury market is rebounding as counteract over 500/k are up 159% for the year.Overall inventory levels are at a low point for buyers sitting at March levels of around 11/k properties. Low interest rates continue to be a driver for buyers. As stated 23% of all closed homes sold above ask price. up from 17% in Jan and 19% in Feb.  

That percentage increases to 38% for closings between $200K-$250K and 27% between $250K-$300K.  It’s not uncommon for sellers to experience multiple offers, escalation clauses and appraisal waivers in today’s environment. In fact, there have been reports of 70 competing offers or more on homes under $300K.  

Sellers who have been on the fence about listing their home lately should seriously consider it now and take advantage while the market is hot.  This spurt in buyer activity may peak very soon and then fall into the typical seasonal decline the Greater Phoenix market experiences every year from July to December.  Pent up demand from the pandemic is now being released, but there’s no guarantee that it will continue at this level for long.  If you planned to sell your home this year, now is the time to list it.

Arizona Market:
Cromford Market Index (CMI): The CMI is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, above 100 is a seller’s market and below 100 is a buyer’s market. Prices do not drop until the CMI hits 90). On March 20, the CMI peaked at 241, and as of today it was a 170.2 , up from the bottom of 145.2 we hit on May 15 and up 10+ points in the past seven days.

Supply: Our local inventory started dropping on May 12 and has continued to decrease every day since. We finished May 2020 nearly 28% below where we were at the end of May 2019 and that is nearly 48% below normal inventory levels. To keep prices under control, we need more listings, desperately. Dr. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR said, “More listings and increased home construction will be needed to tame price growth.”

Demand: Showing Time shares its physical showing request data. The requests peaked on February 22 and then immediately dropped by 63% through mid-April. As of last week, we are only 2.7% below February’s peak and only 4.8% below where we were last year. Our demand is running about 15% below normal and increased 3% in the past week.

New Listings, New Pendings, and Closings: When new pendings outpace new listings, we have a market frenzy. This week over week comparison for the southeast valley since March 15 shows an early drop in new listing counts which is concerning given the growing demand. Only time will tell if it is pent up demand or actual demand. Based on February’s demand it is likely to be actual. If this is the case, prices will rise rapidly. Closings always increase at the end of the month. May’s end of the month was not only bigger than April’s, but the closing increases started earlier. Good signs for what is to come!  

Other Arizona News:

  • High paying tech jobs continue coming to AZ.
  • Despite the headlines, Boeing is hiring and growing.
  • Mitsubishi’s location in the Falcon Field district in Mesa is growing and they are bringing in more jobs.
  • Industrial building continues in NE Mesa and companies are occupying them quickly.
  • More businesses have committed to moving to AZ bringing several hundred jobs.
  • According to Elliot Pollack & Company as of the week of May 16 in Maricopa County retail and recreational trips are down 27.3% year over year.
  • April hotel occupancy levels were 24.8%, down from 73.8% year over year and from 47.9% in March.
  • Hotel demand in April was down 69.4% year over year and supply dropped 8.9% year over year. Several closed their doors completely.

Unemployment/Economy/Spending:

Amazon hired 175,000 new employees and announced that they will be keeping 150,000 of those new employees. Of the nearly 42 million who have filed for unemployment around 22 million are collecting benefits. A study from the University of Chicago found that 68% of unemployed workers who are receiving benefits that exceed the lost earnings. Further, 20% of the unemployed workers are receiving benefits that exceed two times the lost earnings. Becker Friedman from the Institute of Economics at the University of Chicago said, “The CAREs Act actually provides income expansion rather than replacement for most unemployed workers.”

 

 

What remains to be seen is the long-term impact of unemployment, the supply chain interruptions, and the 25-30% of the non-essential businesses that closed and will not reopen. Last Wednesday, AMC Theatres, the world’s biggest movie theater chain, stated they have “substantial doubt” they will be able to stay in business due to the extended closures.

National savings rates are up; April was 33% versus 12.7% in March and 8.4% a year ago. Remember one person’s spending is another person’s income. Saving is good yet so is spending. Spending on travel is slowly increasing. According to the TSA as of May 23 travel is down 89.1% year over year, an improvement from 91.3% the week before. Traffic through Sky Harbor is down 93% year over year in April.  

Emerging Trends:

  • We are seeing increases in second home purchases which is unusual in a financially stressful time.
  • Today’s consumers are researching commute time, wifi strength, cell strength, access to Amazon Prime Now, etc. These will likely become searchable data points in the future.
  • Moody’s Analytics expects that by the end of the year office vacancy rates could reach an all-time high of 19.4%.
  • 75% of Americans that are working from home said they would like to continue doing so and of those 2/3 said they would like to move.
  • 40% of homes do not have an extra room for a home office; 31% of people working from home are working in their living room or family room, 10% in the kitchen, and 3% in the attic.
I hope you stay safe and continue to be well. 
Thank you very much for reading this update and please let me know if I can help in any way with your real estate needs.
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Dec. 28, 2019

Market update December 2019

Greetings all, 


I hope this email finds you all well and enjoying all the best the holiday season has to offer! Our family was blessed with our 3rd Holiday season with this little face! 
Had to share this picture of my daughter Darrelle, on Christmas morning! She was so excited to open her presents "Santa" had brought for her! 
Our Arizona real estate market has nothing but good news to report and even more blue sky's  ahead.
Of course there is no way to see into the future but most indicators and market predictions are for a healthy housing market next year. 
Some key points this month. 
  • Sales are up 7% from last year. 
  • Total inventory is down 19% from last year
  • Months supply sits at 2.49 months - if no new homes came on the market we would have nothing to sell by the middle of March!
  • Average sales price is up 8.7% from last year. (again another high water mark and all time high for Maricopa county at $354,900)   
  • Average days on market fell as well to 58 from 64 last month

I wish you all the very best and a happy, healthy new year in 2020! 
 
 
you can read the whole report here- 
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Dec. 13, 2019

Budget-Friendly Cleaning Tips for Dog Owners

 

 

 

 

Opening your home and heart to a dog is beneficial to you—the human—as well as the four-legged friend you took home from the shelter or breeder. Studies show that living with a dog can keep you physically fit, happier, and healthier—especially as you age. Sharing your home with a dog can also help to reduce stress, ease feelings of depression, lower blood pressure, and improve cardiovascular health overall.

 

While sharing your home with a pooch has its benefits, there are several drawbacks to living with any furry companion animal. From the lingering smell of pet odors to the hair and dander you’ll find spread across your furniture, sharing a home with a dog means you’ll put a considerable amount of time into cleaning your floors, couches, rugs, and bedding.

While dog ownership may seem daunting, cleaning up after a pooch doesn’t need to be costly or time-consuming. For some budget-friendly tips that will help you to keep your home clean and odor-free, read on!

Managing Dog Fur and Dander

Sharing a home with a dog means you’ll more than likely find fur and dander scattered across your furniture, floors, rugs, clothes, and bedding—especially if you’re not regularly brushing your canine companion. For instance, The Spruce discusses the importance of grooming and brushing your dog for a clean home and a healthy pup! You can’t stop your dog from shedding, but routine grooming will reduce the amount of hair you’ll find lying around your home.

 

To keep your home clean and hair-free in between groomings, the following tools can be used to remove pet hair from furniture, upholstery, rugs, floors and clothing:

 

●     Tape or lint rollers

●     A handheld vacuum

●     A Fur-Zoff Pet Hair Remover

●     A cloth wrapped in duct tape

●     Dryer sheets

●     Rubber gloves (for upholstered furniture)

Eliminating Odors and Stains

When you live with a canine companion, there will come a time when your pup has an accident on your carpet, area rug, or even inside your vehicle. In these situations, you’ll need to clean the soiled area as quickly as possible to prevent a permanent odor from setting in. To do so, use a sponge or several paper towels to soak up as much of the urine as possible. Then, use a pet-friendly odor neutralizer to spot-treat the soiled area before covering the area with plastic wrap and allowing the odor neutralizer to work its magic.

 

If a stain forms or you smell an odor even after you absorb the urine and neutralize the area, a deep clean may be in order. In most cases, an enzymatic-based cleaning solution will be your best strategy for removing urine stains from your home.

 

After letting the enzyme digester sit for about four hours, you may need to apply the cleaning solution a few more times—especially if you’re working on an older pet stain. If the stain remains, a mixture of baking soda and vinegar may do the trick.

Removing Saliva Stains and Slobber

While you may love seeing your dog in the window whenever you pull into your driveway after a long day at work, you may not be thrilled about the nose art or slobber he leaves behind for you to clean. According to Vivamune, you can easily remove these slimy saliva stains from your windows with an equal mixture of water and white vinegar. Just pour this mixture into a spray bottle and use a rag or paper towel to clean your windows as you normally would.

 

For stubborn saliva stains, Mr. Clean Magic Erasers can be used to wash your windows before polishing them off with white vinegar and water. Just dip the Magic Eraser into hot water, wring it out, and scrub the window clean. You can even use a Magic Eraser to remove drool from walls coated in flat or eggshell paint!

 

Sure, cleaning dog messes isn’t always enjoyable—especially when you’re juggling work, kids, and everyday life. However, these budget-friendly tips can help you to keep your home clean and your pup happy—which is the perfect balance for any dog owner.

- Article by Medina James medina@dogetiquette.info

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Nov. 27, 2019

October Market Update | Residential Market News Phoenix Arizona Metro Areas

Well we start off with nothing but good news from the AZ market and finish with the same. We have hit the high-water mark for total sales volume with a month to go.

(Surpassing 2005)
"The one metric that defines the overall success of our industry is total dollar sales volume. It’s quite remarkable when we reconcile the market expectations from last October with the reality of today. Just one year
ago interest rates were rising, the stock market was on the verge of a 20% drop, housing was in the doldrums and
national news reports were loud and negative. With all the negative momentum, who would have believed that 2019
would account for the highest gross dollar sales volume in ARMLS history? I’m here today to say when the final
numbers are counted, 2019 will beat out 2005 and rank number 1."



Some highlights:
Average prices are up 6.4% compared to this time last year and the median sales price is also up 8.8% over the same period.
Total inventory is down and sits at 18443 units, about -15.2% from last year.
Average days on market stayed about the same at 59 vs 61.
Overall all signs are for a robust and strong finish to the year.
Some interesting Ideas from this months reports-
"San Francisco can be thought of as a city of haves and
have nots using the example of two schoolteachers, one who purchased a median price home in 2000 for $400,000
and the other who chose to rent. The homeowner is now a millionaire and the renter is paying $3,700 per month
in rent and has nothing. All because one chose to buy and the other chose to rent. This level of inequity is not
conducive to a community, which explains the flood of recent articles about people fleeing not only San Francisco,
but California in general. The San Francisco Bay area is second only to New York when it comes to people leaving.
Why is this important to us? Arizona, specifically Phoenix metro, is one of the California migrants’ top 5 destinations
of choice.
On the forefront of my mind recently is the extreme deficit in affordable housing. One example that our
industry needs to address is the severe cost burden put on renters as they face annual rent increases ranging
from 2-5%. There are housing alternatives out there and we as an industry need to do a better job educating
people about the very real fact that mortgage credit is available and very reasonable. With only a 3.5% down
payment, and as low as a 580 FICO score with a debt-to-income ration as high as 50% you can buy a home
using a FHA/VA mortgage. In many cases, renters aren’t aware of how much mortgage credit is open to help
them pursue the American Dream, and instead are absorbing higher annual housing costs, which can be a
difficult cycle to break out of for many young consumers."
 
I hope you all have a wonder Thanksgiving, filled with family, friends and wonderful times!
Thank you for everything!

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