This year, February 2022, reported the highest median price, average price, and price per square foot on record, up year-over-year 28.5%, 22.5% and 27.21%, respectively. ARMLS reported a staggering $7,876,294,827 in gross dollar volume, currently 19.1% ahead of last year’s pace.
Average new list prices are up +24.5% year-overyear. The yearover-year median is up +25.3%. & The average sales price is up +22.5% year-over-year while the yearover-year median sales price is also up +28.5%.
Sales are up +11.1% month-over-month. The year-over-year comparison is down -1.3%.
New inventory has a month-overmonth decrease of -0.6% while the year-overyear comparison decreased by -1.2%.
Total inventory has a month-overmonth decrease of -1.3% while yearover-year reflects a decrease of -1.7%.
Cash investors continue to drive demand and pricing, public records data tells us our market is being driven by non-primary buyers purchasing with cash. Non-primary buyers accounted for 36% of all home purchases in February, while 29.2% were cash.
The Absorption Rate is Up Month Over Month and Comparable Year Over Year The term absorption rate refers to a metric used in the real estate market to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold in a specific market during a given time. It is calculated by dividing the number of homes sold in the allotted time by the number of available homes. Historically, an absorption rate of 20 would be considered a balanced market. Today our absorption rate stands at 191.51. Last February, the reading was 193.06. While the pending price data confirms rising prices, the absorption rate table explains why prices are rising.
Since the beginning of last year, institutional buyers have acquired, through purchases and building, over 9,000 homes. Most of these purchases are SFR in the $250,000 to $500,000 price range. Their model, buy/build, hold, and rent.
Although the re-sale and new homes markets continue to show very little sign of weakness, the same cannot be said of the rental market. The vast majority of rentals do not hit the MLS, so we have to be careful because of the poor sample size. However, the ARMLS rentals database shows us that the market is nowhere near as favorable to landlords as it was this time last year. Here is why we say that: • Available supply is up from 1,543 to 2,138 units, a rise of 39%, meaning tenants are getting more choice • New rental listings are up 20% year to date compared with 2021, so supply is arriving faster • New rental listings are up 26% over the past 4 weeks, compared with 2021, telling us that the increased supply trend is strengthening • The average lease list price per sq. ft. is $1.80, down from $1.93 this time last year • The average lease list price per sq. ft. peaked at $2.01 on May 22, 2021, fell back then peaked again at $2.00 on Jul 29 before falling again - it is unable to convincingly break the $2 resistance level and has made no attempt to do so in the last 7 months These conditions suggest that the era of quickly rising rents in Greater Phoenix may be coming to an end. A large amount of new rental supply is coming on board this year, judging by the number of multi-family permits issued in the last 2 years. Rent looks likely to stay fairly flat, which will change the buy versus rent equation as home prices and mortgage rates continue to increase. In the longer term, this could seriously dampen demand for homes to buy. Interestingly, the supply of active listings varies a lot by dwelling type. • Apartments to rent are down 33% • Townhouses to rent are up just 1% • Single-family detached homes to rent are up 99% - there are 1,546 versus only 777 this time last year .
US birth rates are very low by historic standards and with the baby boomers reaching advanced ages, we can expect natural growth in the population to be small, or even negative. Population growth will be entirely dependent on incoming transfers from other states or foreign countries. Ivy Zelman has been bearish on the housing market for a couple of years, primarily because of these demographic trends. She has been completely wrong about the market so far, but she is right that the demographics are fundamentally unfavorable for housing in the longer term. In Arizona we are atypical in that so many people have been moving here. This hides the weak natural growth in population (births minus deaths) and has driven our prices up faster than almost any other part of the USA. This will not last forever. In Arizona, we have a history of building more and more homes until there is a very obvious reason to stop. There will come a time, and nobody knows exactly when it will be, when we have built enough shelter for the population and demand sinks below supply. It seems likely that we will see that in rentals before we see it in homes for purchase.
As always very best regards and please let me know if I can help with your real estate goals in any way!
** quotes from ARMLS STAT