This housing market in sunny AZ continues to stay on fire!
*ARMLS reported the highest sales volume of any January in our history. The 7,076 home sales this January eclipsed the prior January record for ARMLS sales by 6.69%. There were 6,632 sales reported by ARMLS in January 200
*Highest average sales price ever ($439,620) and you arrive at an astounding gross dollar volume of $3.11 billion dollars, an annual increase of 35%. It should also be noted that on a historical basis, January is the slowest month of the year for sales, making January activity that much more impressive. There were two fewer days to conduct business than last year.
*Last year we discussed falling interest rates, falling inventories, higher sales volume and rising prices. We described our market as a full-blown sellers’ market with the added caveat, “Anyone waiting for prices to fall, well, they’ll be waiting.” Now jump forward to January 2021. The current interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 2.73% compared to 3.47% one year ago. Year-over-year, active listings are down 58%, sales volume is up 11.8% and the median sales price is up 17.28%. And now we are entering our traditional buying season. We are now facing a “full-blown sellers’ market” on steroids.
*ARMLS active listings by dwelling type and tracks their descent over the past 24 months. In February 2019 ARMLS was reporting only 18,131 total active listings, which was 37% below what we would define as a typical market. At the time of this report, ARMLS is reporting only 4,488 active listings without a contract. To place this number in a historical perspective, current listings are 84% below what would be considered a typical market. The inventory for manufactured/mobile homes has shown little change over the past two years, while detached single-family listings have declined over 78%.
*The January reported median was $340,000. For the ninth straight month our mathematical model slightly underestimated our reported median sales price. Looking ahead to February, the ARMLS Pending Price Index is projecting a median sales price of $345,000.
*We began February with 6,714 pending contracts, 4,256 UCB listings and 347 CCBS giving us a total of 11,317 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 10,693 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of February, the pending contracts were 5.84% higher than last year. There were 19 business days in February of 2020 and 19 this year. ARMLS reported 7,279 sales in February of 2020. We should see yearover-year sales gains this February. The highest sales volume ever in February occurred in 2005 when ARMLS reported 7,781 home sales. The February sales volume should approach or possibly even exceed the volume in 2005.